Is Great Power Co-existence Possible?

Is Great Power Coexistence Possible? Avoiding War in the 21st Century
Organizers: TV Paul, Kai He, Markus Kornprobst and Anders Wivel

While general realist and power transition theories often view great power conflict and rivalry as inevitable in world politics, there is a notable historical pattern of great powers choosing co-existence over confrontation. Throughout various historical periods, major powers had temporarily abandoned antagonism in favor of cooperative or peaceful arrangements. Notable examples include: the Concert of Europe, the brief period of cooperation following World War II; the détente period of the 1970s, and the post-9/11 era of strategic cooperation. However, these episodes of co-existence were often followed by renewed rivalry and conflict. Why do great powers engage in strategies of co-existence? Conversely, why do great powers abandon policies of co-existence? As today’s emerging international order seems to portend increasing tensions, it is crucial to examine how co-existence is created, why it sometimes collapses, and what lessons can be drawn to sustain it in the future.This panel explores the historical and theoretical foundations of great power and rising power co-existence, the factors that have enabled or undermined it, and what prospects exist for sustaining peaceful relations in the 21st century.

Contributors to a Proposed Special Journal Issue:

1. TV Paul and Markus Kornprobst, The Theoretical Bases of Peaceful Coexistence
2. Norrin Ripsman and Jeff Taliaferro, “Realist and Neorealist explanations for the rise and  collapse of Co-existence
3. Andrew Cooper, “Concert as Co-Existence.”
4. Manjeet Pardesi, “Sino-Indian Coexistence” -Why it failed; Lessons for 21st century
5. Jaeyoung Kim and M. Yusuf Yilmaz, “Détente- lessons for co-existence.”
6. Deborah Larson, “Status Co-sharing: Past and Future.”
7. Anders Wivel, Co-existence in Europe: Cold War and Post-Cold War Experiences
8. Kyle Lascurettes, Concert versus collective security for great Power co-existence
9. Laura Viola: Great power co-existence and exclusionary orders
10. Kai He and Huiyun Feng (Griffith), Chinese conceptions of co-existence and Peaceful Change- why they changed
11. Sarah Teo (RSIS, Singapore)

The Future of Security Communities

Organizers:T.V. Paul (McGill University) and Trine Flockhart (EUI, Florence)

Security communities are under severe challenge today. The neo-imperial and expansionist policies of U.S. President Donald Trump have not only undercut the liberal international order but, more importantly, have resurrected the idea of “spheres of influence” at the forefront of international politics, an idea fundamentally antithetical to the concept of a security community. In the face of this challenge emanating from Washington, both the North American security community and the U.S.–Europe North Atlantic community have been severely tested. The threat of military force to occupy Denmark-administered Greenland and to make Canada the 51st state is not merely rhetorical but existential from the perspectives of Denmark and Canada, both NATO allies. The ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia’s efforts to divide the European Union and NATO, and China’s expansionist activities in the South China Sea have also affected the ASEAN security community, with some members sympathetic to or non-reactive toward China’s entreaties. ASEAN further contains an active interstate conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, erupting into periodic violence, as well as the unresolved internal conflict in Myanmar, which shows no signs of resolution. As scholars who have written about security communities for more than four decades, how should we assess the current state of affairs and future prospects of security communities, both for theory and for policy? Is the idea of a security community in danger of vanishing, or will it remain an important collective system of peace—even in truncated forms—in the face of major geopolitical convulsions and systemic change? This project aims to make such an assessment, recognizing that we are still in the midst of power transitions involving great powers and pivotal states.

The Chapters-Volume under Preparation

1. 1. The Future of Security Communities: An Introduction — Trine Flockhart & T.V. Paul
2. 2. Security Communities Under Stress: A Reconceptualization — Emanuel Adler & Michael Barnett
3. 3. Security Communities from a Global Perspective — Amitav Acharya
4. 4. The Dark Side of Security Communities: A Constructivist Take — Frédéric Mérand & Vincent Pouliot
5. 5. Security Communities in a World of America First and Great Power Competition: A Neoclassical Realist View — Norrin Ripsman
6. 6. The End of Security Community in Western Europe? — Anders Wivel & Ole Wæver
7. 7. Whose Europe? Security Community Visions of the European Radical Right — Alexandra Gheciu & Srdjan Vucetic
8. 8. ASEAN’s Quest for a Security Community — Stephanie Martel
9. 9. The Contested Future of Security Communities: North America and Australasia Compared — Richard Higgott & Kim Nossal
10. 10. The Domestic Politics of Security Communities: Lessons from Latin America — Fernando G. Nuñez-Mietz
11. 11. Africa — Catharina Coleman & Markus Kornprobst
12. 12. In the Shadow of Empire: Russian Memory and the Absence of a Self-Sustaining Security Community in Central Asia — Juliet Johnson, M. Yusuf Yilmaz & Stepan Verkhovetz

“Understanding International Order Transition and Peaceful Change in the Indo-Pacific: Perspectives from Middle Powers (For a special journal issue)”

The Indo-Pacific region is experiencing significant transformation as US-China strategic competition intensifies, raising critical questions about the prospects for peaceful order transition. While scholarly attention has primarily focused on great power dynamics, this project examines the understudied yet vital perspective of middle powers in shaping and managing regional order transition. Building on GRENPEC’s research on peaceful change, this project investigates how middle powers navigate the changing regional order, examining their potential to facilitate peaceful transition and the ways their collective action might promote stability amidst great power rivalry. This research is supported by a project grant from the Korea Foundation, Republic of Korea.
Organised by Jojin V John (Mahatma Gandhi University, Kerala, India), T.V. Paul (McGill University, Canada), Kai He (Griffith University)

“International Orders: Understanding Peaceful and Violent Change in the Modern World”- A book Project”

International order is back as a subject of serious enquiry, in the face of renewed major power conflicts and power shifts. This is largely due to the relative decline of the US-led liberal order and the ascendency of authoritarian China. Russia is also challenging the European order through a violent strategy after being a source of peaceful change. Will the impending order change be peaceful or violent? What does historical experience tell us? More specifically, how do international orders come to change peacefully or violently? Our proposed ISA workshop moves from addressing functional and regional orders to world order. First, we inquire into how functional orders evolve over time. We do so primarily by focusing on security orders, including the global nuclear order. Then, we address regional orders, comparing processes of peaceful and violent change across a number of world regions. Given the geopolitical theatres of our times, we pay close attention to Asia and Europe. Finally, we put the pieces together to study the causes of peaceful and violent changes of international order, exploring the links between global and regional orders, and discussing how a more just and peaceful world order can be obtained.
Orgnanizers: Markus Kornprobst (Vienna Diplomatic Academy), Anders Wivel (University of Copenhagen), and Kai He (Griffith University)